持續進行中的全球貿易自由化：中國在 G8 的機會
Sustaining Global Trade Liberalization: China's G8 Opportunity

柯爾頓 　 John Kirton

關鍵字

八國高峰會議、貿易自由化、 加拿大、中國

中文摘要

2007 年的八國高峰會議（ Group of Eight, G8 ）在德國的海利根達姆（ Heiligendamm ）舉行。該次高峰會的重大成就之一就是 G8 與新興經濟體啟動了所謂「海利根達姆進程」（ Heiligendamm Process ）的對話機制。同時， 八大工業國領袖也贏得新興經濟體及開發中國家的支持，達成共同奮鬥以適應氣候變遷的協議。 參與對話機制的國家除 G8 成員外，尚包含巴西、中國、印度、墨西哥與南非等新興經濟體。對話機制強調創新、投資自由化、智慧財產（ intellectual property ）、發展以及能源效率議題。未來海利根達姆進程是否會導致英國首相布萊爾（ Tony Blair ）所預測的完全 質變（ complete metamorphosis ）則是 八國高峰會與 新興經濟體政治領袖們的重大挑戰。但是朝此方向發展將有助於將貿易直接加入議程，終能實現布萊爾的預測。

有不少人指出目前 八國高峰會之所以在全球貿易治理上失敗的原因。絕大多數將之歸咎於不斷變遷的專業能力，因為全球貿易的權力正越來越從 G8 的成員過渡到 G8 外的新興經濟國家。為此， G8 已試圖引進新興的貿易強國。首先是在 1999 年透過 20 國集團（ the Group of Twenty, G20 ）的財長對話來達成此目標，接著又自 2004 年起經由七國財長俱樂部來邀請中國財長與會，終而從 2003 年開始藉舉行 G8 加五的 高峰會 對話來改善與發展中國家的溝通管道。但是儘管 G8 允許其四邊對話對由新興經濟強國所組成的新 G20 貿易部長會議做出讓步，不過後者卻未能加速杜哈回合的議程 (Doha Development Agenda, DDA) ，也未能使之有圓滿的結局。

今，現存的一些有關 「 海利根達姆進程」的文獻對此進程的前景抱持謹慎的樂觀態度，而另一方面則點出該進程所面臨的許多障礙。但是卻無一文章論及 「 海利根達姆進程」對 全球貿易治理的潛在貢獻，也沒有一篇文章從詳細的 之前身、緣起、協商、架構與早期的運作情形為基礎來 檢視該進程未來可能的成果。本文主旨即在從全球貿易治理貢獻的角度來深入分析「 海利根達姆進程」過去的發展過程、現況與未來的發展潛力 。

Key Words

G8, trade liberalization, Canada , China

Abstract

In his speech to the World Economic Forum at Davos on January 27, 2007 , British Prime Minister Tony Blair made two bold predictions (Blair 2007). First, he forecast: “On the WTO…I think it is now more likely than not...that we will reach a deal within the next few months.” Second, he declared: “The G8 is already on its way to metamorphosis into G8+5. At G8+5, it can be a forum for agreement between the most powerful nations with a true modern global reach. But sooner or later, the metamorphosis should be complete.”

is first forecast proved to be a failure, for as 2007 ended, the badly overdue Doha Development Agenda (DDA) at the World Trade Organization (WTO) remained undone. But his second proved prescient, as the Group of Eight's (G8) June 6-8th, 2007 Summit launched a new Heiligendamm Process (HP) of structured dialogue between the G8 and “outreach five” (O5) countries led by China on investment, intellectual property, development and energy. Whether the HP will lead to the complete metamorphosis called for by Blair is a key challenge for political leadership in both the G8 and O 5 in the coming years. But as it moves in that direction, it could usefully add trade directly to its agenda and thus help make Blair's first prediction come true in the end.

This study argues that the prospects for the HP's emergence as an effective centre of trade and global governance are more promising than the existing analyses and current mood suggest. Both the G8 summit and trade G20 acting separately have failed to bring the DDA to a successful end. At the same time, there has been a transformation in the G 8' s treatment of China , and the two have now joined as equals to produce the balanced, broadening dialogue and results of the finance G20. The successes and shortcomings of the G8 Plus Five process have generated moves toward more institutionalized engagement between the G8 and emerging powers. Despite reservations among the G 8' s most powerful members, the U.S. and Japan , and the concerns of many O5 about their unequal treatment, the maximum version of the HP has emerged, complete with a secretariat housed in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) to foster its extensive work program over the next two years. Its future is promising, as a once resistant Japan has now accepted it, and a more enthusiastic Italy and Canada take over as G8 hosts in 2009 and 2010. The many growing vulnerabilities afflicting China , its O5 partners and the G8 members will make all more eager for common solutions, arrived at in common, to be found in the years ahead. Trade is the obvious place for this expanded contribution to global governance to start.